Democrats & LGBTQ+ candidates win in major blue wave while trans-athletes & queer parents might lose

The results so far: Democrats flipped at least 43 House seats, including many considered very conservative, giving them control of the lower chamber. The Senate will have at least 54 Democratic members next year, which not only gives Democrats control of the body but also ensures that the most conservative Democrats, like Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), can’t control the fate of legislation.

Why it matters: Democrats can now check the Trump administration’s expansion of powers and attacks on LGBTQ+ rights through House investigations, denying Senate confirmation of nominees, and keeping anti-LGBTQ+ measures out of legislation.

The math: There are currently 14 LGBTQ+ House members and 1 out Senator. Four of those LGBTQ+ members will not be returning to the House, but one got elected to the Senate, and six new LGBTQ+ people are coming to the House of Representatives. (14 – 4 + 1 + 6 = 17.)

Why it matters: LGBTQ+ people remain woefully underrepresented in elected office, especially in Congress, but this is progress. Several of the new out House members are bisexual, too, giving representation to the B in LGBTQ+.

What we know so far: Trans sports bans that were on the ballot in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, and Washington all passed on Tuesday. Ballot initiatives supporting marriage in Virginia and equal protection for LGBTQ+ people in Vermont both passed. Missouri voters rejected a ban on gender-affirming care that was attached to an abortion ban. Colorado’s gender-affirming surgery ban and Washington’s forced outing of trans kids initiative remain too close to call.

Why it matters: Democrats and LGBTQ+ people may have seen a lot of wins across the country on Tuesday, but equal rights for trans youth did not see similar wins.

What they’re saying: “When I knew Republicans were in trouble when I was reading an overview about, you know, what were they running ads on, and they’re spending hundreds of millions of dollars across the country on transgender ads, but that was not the issue motivating voters, and it was kind of like an attempt just to scare Republicans to vote,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has been one of the most anti-LGBTQ+ Republicans in the 2020s, said this week.

Why it matters: Since 2024, Republicans have relied heavily on anti-trans rhetoric in election campaigns, despite evidence that voters just don’t care enough about trans athletes and gender-affirming care to change their vote for a candidate. Their resounding defeat this week might finally end that strategy.

What the case is about: The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, which is about whether Catholic schools that refuse the kids of same-sex couples in Colorado can still get state money despite violating the state’s anti-discrimination rules. The conservative justices’ questions made it seem like they support the Catholic schools’ religious right to state money.

Why it matters: Neutrally applied laws are generally not considered violations of the First Amendment, but it looks like the conservative justices are looking to carve out an exception for anti-LGBTQ+ religious beliefs.