Disney will continue their No. 1 2024 YTD domestic box office domination this weekend and show that’s there’s still flash in their inherited 20th Century Studios logo with the latest rendition of the Ridley Scott produced sci-fi franchise Alien: Romulus. That movie per industry sources is expected to do $40M in U.S./Canada. Together with a $35M overseas outlook, Alien: Romulus could reach a $75M global start.
No. 2 is bound to be the fourth frame of Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine with $30M; the pic crossed the half billion mark yesterday ($506.9M) in its 19th day of release, becoming the fifth fastest MCU title to cross that mark after Avengers: Endgame (8 days), Spider-Man: No Way Home (12 days) Avengers: Infinity War (15 days), and Black Panther (17 days)
Disney leads all major motion picture studios at the domestic box office with $1.378 billion year-to-date. They’re the first studio this year to pass the $3 billion notch.
Reviews are still coming in, currently at 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but judging from the response at Monday’s Hollywood Chinese Theatre premiere, Don’t Breathe director Fede Alvarez has delivered an edgy, sophisticated expansion of the 45-year old universe here which centers around a last woman standing warrior (played by Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny) against a slew of vampire-like extraterrestrial beasts with a synthetic, trouble-causing android by her side. It’s a much darker Alien and fans will savor it. Disney further boosted the pic’s profile with Alvarez and cast showing up at San Diego Comic-Con’s Hall H last month with several preview clips; they even handed out free alien hugger masks to the 6,500-full auditorium.
One reputable tracking firm who we won’t embarrass is seeing Alien: Romulus at a $28M domestic opening, but such org has been wrong quite frequently this summer per sources, unable to correlate presales data to ultimate final weekend outcomes. In all fairness, post Covid and post-strike moviegoing has been on an unpredictable tear. Last weekend, such firm put $23M out there for Sony/Wayfarer Studios’ It Ends With Us. The movie opened to $50M. Mic drop. This weekend that Justin Baldoni-Blake Lively movie is expected to ease around -55% with $22M. Lively beat her husband Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool & Wolverine at the Monday and Tuesday box office.
Factor in the Latino and Hispanic moviegoer walk-up, especially for a horror movie here, and Alien: Romulus is headed for the moon.
The biggest domestic opening registered by an Alien movie remains Ridley Scott’s 2012 prequel, Prometheus at $51M. Scott followed that up with 2017’s Alien: Covenant which opened to $36.1M. Sources tell us that Romulus is pacing ahead of that sequel.
Anything north of $28M stateside, makes Disney content, the pic costing $80M before P&A. With this R-rated, twentysomething cast starring installment which takes place between the original 1979 Alien and James Cameron’s 1986 Aliens, Disney has the hardcore fans, and men over 35, but the concern here is that the audience isn’t as wide as the studio’s recent revival of 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes which debuted to $58.4M and finaled at $171.1M stateside, ahead of the previous franchise 2017 chapter, Matt Reeves’ War for the Planet of the Apes ($146.9M).
U.S./Canada presales are in the low single digits for Alien: Romulus and ahead of A Quiet Place: Day One (opened to $52.2M) as well as Scream VI ($44.4M) at the same point in time. Previews start Thursday in U.S./Canada at 3PM with Alien: Romulus booked at 3,800 theatres. Of that Disney has teeth with 400 IMAX auditoriums, 900+ Premium Lage Format screens, 275+ D-Box/4D motion screens, and 90+ Screen X screens.
Alien: Romulus releases in all major overseas markets this weekend, save Japan which will go on Sept. 6. Beginning today, the sci-fi thriller flies into France, Italy and Korea, with most other majors going Thursday, and then the UK and China joining on Friday.
There’s room for upside if China delivers above a high-single-digit number (in a competitive market) and if the film overall overseas breaks out beyond the core fanbase. For example, China pre-sales are currently lagging behind other new titles there, while we hear Australia pre-sales are good, but skewed to the opening days.
This is an R-rated film domestically, though not similarly handcuffed in offshore markets. It’s also pure sci-fi, and while we expect good numbers out of Brazil and Mexico which have been on a roll recently, the bulk of business is expected from Europe.
Foreign comps to keep in mind are Alien: Covenant which did $72M at open in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates (though that included $28M from China back in 2017); 2012’s Prometheus at $55M (only one day of China is included there when the market was just opening up); 2018’s The Predator at $45M (including $19M from China); and the much more recent A Quiet Place: Day One at $45M (with $10M from China).
Alvarez was at Barcelona’s CineEurope in June to introduce an extended scene from the film. He recalled staring at a blank page three years ago “faced with the terrifying and thrilling task to bring back to life one of the best sci-fi franchises ever created.” He also noted he had taken some advice from previous Scott and Cameron. The resulting film, he said, goes “places where this franchise has never gone.”
Alien: Romulus will make its UK premiere at the Edinburgh International Film Festival to open the event’s new Midnight Madness strand late on Thursday.
Other movies opening stateside are Roadside Attractions’ My Penguin Friend at 1,062 theaters in the low single digits off 83% fresh Rotten Tomatoes critics score. The David Schurmann directed family movie is inspired by a true story: An enchanting adventure about a lost penguin rescued from an oil spill, who transforms the life of a heartbroken fisherman. Jean Reno stars.
There’s also the IFC thriller Skincare starring Elizabeth Banks as aesthetician Hope Goldman whose skincare business faces sabotage when rival Angel Vergara opens a boutique across the street. Aided by friend Jordan, she seeks to uncover who’s trying to ruin her reputation. Pic is going in 1000 engagements. It’s 83% with film reviewers on RT.
Fathom is re-releasing Laika’s 2009 Oscar nomianted animated movie Coraline in 2,550 theaters starting tomorrow. The pic has already banked just under $3M in presales. Coraline, released originally by Focus Features, counts $82.4M domestic, $131.7M worldwide.
In north of 1,200 theaters, there’s Sunlight Entertainment’s Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure based on the YouTube channel series Ryan’s World. The Japanese-American live-action/animated superhero film is directed by Albie Hecht and follows Ryan (Ryan Kaji) who must rescue his twin sisters, Emma and Kate, after they get trapped in a comic book world. He must return them before their parents notice they’re all gone.