A new poll from Emerson College that was released yesterday shows out former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the pack of potential 2028 candidates.
The poll, conducted from July 19 to July 20, found that 19% of likely Democratic voters support Buttigieg to be their party’s presidential candidate. Second place went to California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 17%. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) tied for fourth at 13%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro got between 5% and 8% — 13% of respondents were undecided.
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When it came to GOP candidates, the poll found a near tie between Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 38%. This is a big change since last August, when Vance got 52% support and Rubio a mere 9%.
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The Emerson Poll showed that a generic Democratic candidate has an 11-point lead over a generic Republican candidate at the moment, the biggest gap in the past two years.
Polls on the 2028 Democratic primary have varied this year. A May poll from AtlasIntel put Ocasio-Cortez in first place, followed by Buttigieg and then Newsom. An Emerson poll from May had Buttigieg at the head of the pack, Newsom in second place, and Ocasio-Cortez in third. A Yale Youth poll from April 2025 had Harris in first place, followed by Ocasio-Cortez and then Buttigieg.
Buttigieg has been signaling that he is likely to run in 2028. When asked if he’s ruling out a run while campaigning for other Democrats in Iowa – a key primary state – he said, “Nope!”
He also spoke with the Rev. Al Sharpton earlier this year at an event where several likely Democratic presidential candidates appeared. Sharpton asked if he should “be reserving a table at Sylvia’s” for Buttigieg. It has become a Democratic primary tradition for candidates to have lunch with Sharpton at Sylvia’s, a soul food restaurant in Harlem.
“You save me a seat, I’ll be there,” Buttigieg responded.
Buttigieg campaigned in New Hampshire back in February to support several Democratic congressional and Senate candidates, but also, as many speculated, to build a network of support in an early-primary state for a possible 2028 run. He was also asked about a possible presidential run.
“I’m a long way from any kind of decision,” he said at the time. “But I’m very happy to be here, and I know what I should be doing for the next year, which is to be there for causes and candidates that are deserving, to speak out, not just against this administration but for the measures that are gonna make it more affordable and easier to live in this state and in this country.”
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