EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros‘ highly anticipated Paul King-directed feature musical Wonka has hit early tracking six weeks before its release on Dec. 15 with box office analytics corp The Quorum predicting a $20M-$23M opening. Note it’s still early in the campaign, so there’s potential for upside.
Unlike other tracking services which project three weeks before a movie’s release, Quorum is six weeks ahead.
In regards to Wonka‘s marketing campaign, there are material out there to move the needle: Two official trailers on the Warner Bros. YouTube channel measuring at respectively 31M and 9M each, lead star Timothée Chalamet will be the guest-host Saturday Night Live on Nov. 11 with the actor also on the cover of GQ. In addition, Warners has 17 one-sheets out there for the movie, in billboards, in-theater and online, and if there’s any barometer as to how much a studio is committing to a movie, it’s in its quantity of one-sheet posters.
Note, holiday moviegoing always explodes post-Christmas after the masses are worry-free of holiday activities and a movie such as Wonka has the potential to leg-out much like other holiday musicals, i.e. The Greatest Showman which had a six-day holiday launch of $19M and went on to make $174.3M. A family movie such as Wonka has the potential to play to the heartland. Comps for Wonka include pre-Christmas releases Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($36.2M), Bumblebee ($21.7M) and Sony’s 2014 feature adaptation of Broadway musical Annie ($15.8M).
Currently, Wonka, we hear is trending with under 35-males, versus Puss in Boots: The Last Wish a year ago which was great with the under 35 female crowd.
Wonka tells the wondrous story of how the world’s greatest inventor, magician and chocolate-maker became the beloved Willy Wonka we know today.
Warner Bros’ original 1971 Mel Stuart-directed Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory based on Roald Dahl’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is a cult family classic and received an Oscar nomination for Best Music, Scoring Adaptation and Original Song Score in 1972. Warner’s reboot, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory in 2005, directed by Tim Burton and starring Johnny Deep as Willy Wonka and Freddie Highmore as Charlie, grossed $206.4M domestic, and $474.9M WW and was also nominated for an Oscar for Gabriella Pescucci’s costumes.