Paramount’s Ryan Reynolds starring, John Krasinski directed all audience movie, If, is heading for a $40M-plus opening on May 17, which for a non-holiday in May and for an original movie, is very good.
Krasinski produced, directed and wrote If.
The PG movie is hot with parents, kids, and the 17-34 crowd, especially female. If arrived on three-week pre-release tracking with a 16 unaided –that’s the category where those polled express interest in a movie without being prompted– which is very high, and higher than what DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s Kung Fu Panda 4 arrived on tracking with; that fourthquel debuting to $57.9M.
Comps are tricky for If: Hello?! When was the last PG-live action conceived tentpole based on an original property? There was the Jennnifer Aniston and Owen Wilson 2008 dog romance Marley & Me which debuted to $36.3M, but that doesn’t count. There was also 2004’s Nicolas Cage action title, National Treasure which debuted to $35.1M. Remember, Reynolds has been great at launching original, franchise potential fare before: He had Free Guy as we were coming out of Covid which opened to $28.3M and legged out to $121.6M.
Hands down, another No. 1 win for the Brian Robbins-run Paramount studio which has already delivered Mean Girls ($28.6M opening) and Bob Marley: One Love ($51.5M opening) as the Melrose Lot remains in exclusive talks with Skydance/Red Bird for potential takeover.
Also hitting three-week in advance tracking this AM is Focus Features’ Amy Winehouse biopic, Back to Black, which is eyeing $6M-$8M, the movie having bagged already $15M-plus in its offshore release, as well as Lionsgate’s horror movie The Strangers: Chapter One from filmmaker Renny Harlin, and starring Riverdale‘s Madelaine Petsch which has a swing from $6M-$10M in its 3-day.
The key to success for all these movies are there multiples as they play into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.