Facing the worst reviews ever for an Indiana Jones movie, the Lucasfilm franchise finale, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, is hoping to gain traction with audiences and best its $60M-$65M domestic start, $140M global opening.
If the post pandemic has proved anything, it’s that popcorn pics aren’t so beholden to the Rotten Tomatoes barometer. Jurassic World: Dominion was shutdown by film reviewers by all intents and purposes at 29% Rotten, but prevailed to a $145M domestic opening; and more recently The Little Mermaid at 67% fresh saw a $118.8M 4-day start. Dial of Destiny is now at 65% fresh, versus its previous chapters: Raiders of the Lost Ark‘s 93%, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (77%) and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (84%).
By the way that outlook is for the 3-day weekend, not the extended 5-day –Friday though Tuesday– of the Independence Day stretch, the holiday falling on the last day. As is standard for July 4, moviegoing in the U.S. slows due to festive activities, so don’t expect much money on that day.
The finale, as is well known, is not directed by series architect Steven Spielberg (who is EP here), rather Logan filmmaker James Mangold.
While Disney faced headwinds on Indy 5 coming out of its Cannes World premiere, they’ve amped up their publicity with Harrison Ford, Phoebe Waller Bridge and cast making face-time in a way that Flash could not given that pic’s problems with its tabloid headline star Ezra Miller. Disney held an LA premiere for Indy 5 on June 14, a London premiere on Monday, with the pic hitting Italy this past weekend at the Taormina Film Festival. Ford has been crying, and quite vocal about his swan song here as the archeologist.
A $60M+ U.S/Canada opening is in the vicinity of older skewing dude movies like No Time to Die ($55.2M) and 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M). If Indy 5 is going to break out, it needs the young people to show up. The over 50+ male demo is expected to show up. This isn’t a property like Star Wars which has been able to bring along the young set as well as play broad.
Dial of Destiny‘s 3-day will, of course, be down from the $100.1M 3-day domestic of the last movie, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and the second best opening for the franchise. Note that fourthquel opened on a Thursday over a Memorial Day weekend earning in total over five days, $151.9M. In unadjusted for inflation and currency results, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull opened to $272.1M WW back. Paramount released all previous Indy movies before Disney bought Lucasfilm.
1989’s Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade opened to $29.3M 3-day ($46.9M over extended Memorial Day weekend) at 2,327 theaters. 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom bowed to $25.3M 3-day ($42.2M extended Memorial Day weekend) at 1,687 theaters. 1981’s Raiders of the Lost Ark‘s gross pattern is a shining example of how blockbusters were big sleepers back in the VHS era: The pic opened to $8.3M at 1,078 theaters and by January 1982 earned $179.6M with an initial cume of $212.2M, lifetime gross of $248.1M.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny starts its offshore rollout on Wednesday, and will be open around the globe through Friday. Tomorrow’s debuts include the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Korea and Australia. The international box office launch is looking at $80M+ for the weekend; there may be wiggle room.
The best comp here is the previous movie, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, which bowed to $99.7M in like-for-likes and at today’s rates. It likewise had its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival.
Look for the mature European markets to see the strongest performance, notably the UK and France. Among majors also expected in the top grouping are Australia, Korea, Mexico and Japan. The latter has seen younger audiences turn increasingly towards local fare, but older demos have leaned into nostalgia.
While China is often a swing, it isn’t one here. The previous Indiana Jones movies never released theatrically in the market and thus familiarity is low, meaning Dial of Destiny could potentially whip up only about $3M for the three-day. There’s also a strong local movie that is expected to carry the weekend in its sophomore session.
Looking under the hood of the fifthquel’s domestic outlook, we hear presales for Dial of Destiny stood at under $6M last Friday, ahead of No Time to Die, but it’s not too far from John Wick: Chapter 4 and Fast X, which had respective stateside debuts of $73.8M and $67M. Thursday previews are at 3PM with the Mangold movie reaching 4,500 theaters Friday which includes 400 Imax hubs and 900 PLF screens, as well as Screen X and 4D/D-Box. A $60M+ start would rep Mangold’s second biggest opening as a filmmaker in U.S./Canada after 2017’s Logan ($88.4M).
Universal has DreamWorks Animation’s $70M movie, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken which is only suppose to do in the single digits. That won’t slow down the family heavyweight holdovers, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse fifth weekend and Elemental‘s third weekend which should be around $12M-$13M each in second. Moms and girls are the target audience for this action movie directed by Kirk DeMicco (Vivo, The Croods).
Pic follows sweet, awkward 16-year-old Ruby Gillman (Lana Condor, To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before franchise) who is desperate to fit in at Oceanside High, but she mostly just feels invisible. Her over-protective mom (Toni Collette) forbids that Ruby ever get in the water. However, rules are made to be broken and Ruby takes a dive, soon learning she’s a direct descendant of the warrior Kraken queens and is destined to inherit the throne from her commanding grandmother (Jane Fonda), the Warrior Queen of the Seven Seas. The Kraken are sworn to protect the oceans of the world against the vain, power-hungry mermaids who have been battling with the Kraken for eons. There’s one major, and immediate, problem with that: The school’s beautiful, popular new girl, Chelsea (Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek) just happens to be a mermaid. Ruby will ultimately need to embrace who she is and go big to protect those she loves most.