The AMC-distributed Taylor Swift concert movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which paused weekday play from Monday-Thursday, is looking at a 60%-70% dive in its second weekend with $27M-$37M off its first weekend of $92.3M. Those industry projections are based on the front-loaded nature of female-skewing pics, per sources.
Disney’s Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert movie dropped 67% in its second weekend way back in 2008. However, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never had a better hold at -54% in 2011. All in, this is expected to be the best second weekend for a concert movie at the domestic box office.
Apple Original Films’ big splash into a wide theatrical release with Paramount on Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon has been looking at a $20M-$25M opening with tracking for a while. That would be mind-blowing for a 3 hour, 26-minute western drama that’s getting released in the midst of the actors strike, which has prevented stars from tubthumping their pics. Such conceived tentpoles as New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s $80M The Creator were impacted greatly by the strike; that pic’s promotion was hamstrung sans an awesome San Diego Comic-Con and fall film festival launch, ultimately opening to $14M and currently at a running cume of $33.4M. Another adult-skewing title, 20th/Disney’s A Haunting in Venice, also took a hit with a $14.2M opening.
Why so optimistic on Killers of the Flower Moon? Analysts are bullish on the DiCaprio factor of it all in regards to the draw in a marketing campaign that’s been everywhere in TV spots and outdoor. A $20M+ opening here also would be a notable start for Apple’s foray into wide theatrical releases, its next being the Sony-distributed and Ridley Scott-directed Napoleon on November 22. The DiCaprio-Robert De Niro-Lily Gladstone movie has been on fire with critics since its world premiere at Cannes (which was where the stars previously did press back in May before the strike) with a current Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 96% certified fresh.
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Adapted by Scorsese and Eric Roth from the David Grann book, Killers of the Flower Moon follows the improbable romance of Ernest Burkhart (DiCaprio) and Mollie Kyle (Lily Gladstone) against the suspicious murders of members of the Osage Nation, who became some of the richest people in the world overnight after oil was discovered underneath their land during the 1920s.
Given the length of this movie, previews will start as early as 2 p.m. on Thursday. Killers of the Flower Moon is booked in 3,621 theaters and looks to pull in men and women over 25. Working in the Scorsese pic’s advantage is the fact that it will have all the Imax and PLF screens, with little overlap with Eras Tour.
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In regards to this Apple-financed property, the streamer is handling the marketing and publicity, while Paramount has overseen the distribution and booking of theaters.
Overall, the good news between Killers of the Flower Moon and Eras Tour is that neither is cannibalizing the other’s coveted demos.
No Apple TV+ streaming date has been set for Killers of the Flower Moon as a guaranteed long theatrical window is being planned due to awards season.
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DiCaprio’s highest openings with Scorsese are, in order: Shutter Island ($41M in 2010), The Departed ($27M, 2006), The Wolf of Wall Street ($18M, 2013), Gangs of New York ($9.1M, 2002) and The Aviator ($858K first weekend at 40 theaters with a second weekend wide break of $9.1M, 2004).
A $20M+ opening for Killers of the Flower Moon would rep the best domestic start for De Niro in a Scorsese film — Cape Fear being the duo’s biggest opening together with $10.2M back in 1991. Cape Fear on a global basis is De Niro’s highest-grossing movie with Scorsese at $182M, while DiCaprio’s is Wolf of Wall Street at $407M.