Is The Best Actor Race In (Financial) Trouble?

Everyone knows that winning an acting Oscar isn’t just about the acting – there’s a reason predictions often make the distinction between who will win and who should. A lot of complex, amorphous factors go into which performances get nominated, which is why an entire industry has built up around the months-long calendar of awards campaigning.

Some of those are, to an extent, within the actor’s control. How many events they choose to attend, for example, or how well-liked they are by Hollywood at large. Have they spent years refusing to come out of their trailers, or being courteous to their crews? Are they the upstart who their colleagues would like to see knocked down a peg, or the reliable veteran finally getting their moment in the spotlight?

Others happen entirely independent of them, even ones that can make or break their chances. The classic example of this is how their movie is thought of beyond their work in it. A great performance in a film that isn’t much appreciated outside of it has a much harder chance of keeping the Academy’s attention.

A movie’s box office is likewise outside a performer’s control – but it seems to be becoming an issue for the 2026 Best Actor race.

Could Box Office Stumbles Tank Some Best Actor Campaigns This Year?

Dwayne Johnson & Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Dwayne Johnson started off awards season in great position. His film, The Smashing Machine, debuted at Venice to reviews that were generally good, but especially celebratory of his work in the lead role. At the premiere, he teared up during the 15-minute standing ovation, which, though it may not have any bearing on the race itself, bore an auspicious resemblance to the start of Brendan Fraser’s journey to the podium for The Whale.

Coming out of the fall festivals, a lot of the chatter was directed at him, and he seemed a fierce contender. But then his movie opened well below expectations, and suddenly, all the headlines were about Johnson’s worst-ever box office debut. As one of A24’s most-expensive movies ever, Deadline reported it’s expected to lose $10-15 million when all’s said and done.

The Rock has some compelling narratives working for him, and plenty of peers who would like to see him succeed. He’s by no means out of the race. But he’s now fighting against the momentum of the movie he’s in, and given his longtime position as a box office stalwart, this could stick to him more than it might a more arthouse star.

He’s also not alone. While One Battle After Another is in a much stronger position overall, a lot of attention has been directed to its sizable budget. It’s earning well for an original film of its kind, but it’s still reportedly tracking to lose Warner Bros. $100 million (Variety). Leonardo DiCaprio gives one of the performances of his career in that film, but as arguably the value-add star working today, does he get the blame for that in voters’ minds? Or does he get the credit for what it has made?

Just this weekend, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere underperformed, opening to fourth domestically. Jeremy Allen White has earned praise for his performance since Telluride, and he does his own singing, which gives him a great angle to campaign on. But A Complete Unknown, whose actors rode much the same wave last year, was a hit. Could that keep White out of the final five?

Box office alone won’t determine the Best Actor race, but this year is going to test how much it can matter. If it comes down to, say, Johnson and Michael B. Jordan, the overall success of Sinners could tip the scales in Jordan’s direction.