No, there won’t be any finger-pointing at the box office this weekend over a franchise film failing to open.
For, Lionsgate/Thunder Road Films/87 Eleven’s John Wick: Chapter 4 looks to not only reinvigorate a tentpole-heavy spring, but also debut to a franchise record of $115M worldwide.
Broken out that’s $65M-$70M in the U.S./Canada and another $45M abroad.
There’s a palpable energy in the air for what is billed as Keanu Reeves’ swan song in the series, this coming after two back-to-back premieres for Chapter 4, including a surprise screening at SXSW last week and the Los Angeles premiere last night. All of this has resulted in the best reviewed John Wick movie ever at 93% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
With last week’s shocking death of Lance Reddick, who plays John Wick Continental Hotel concierge Charon in all four films, it would not be surprising to see even more fans make their way to the theater to watch one of his big-screen finales.
The fourthquel is booked at 3,800 theaters, with 1,675 of those being Imax, premium large format and motion enhanced seats (Dbox, 4DX, MX4D). Previews stateside start at 3PM on Thursday.
The last movie, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, posted $5.9M in Thursday previews which turned into a $22.6M opening day, and previous record domestic opening of $56.8M back in May 2019. The threequel finaled at $171M domestic, $328.3M WW becoming the highest grossing installment in a $588.7M grossing franchise. The marvel of this R-rated Keanu Reeves series, which has the actor once again reteaming with his Matrix co-star Laurence Fishburne, has always been how it started off small in theaters ($43M domestic, $86M WW) and mushroomed thanks to a great life in its home entertainment window into a behemoth at the box office. Arguably, the last time we saw this happen was with New Line’s Austin Powers.
The Chad Stahelski directed fourthquel is best with older guys and women, and Black moviegoers. The last movie, released in May 2019 pulled in 45% guys over 25, 29% women over 25, and men under 25 at 18%. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum yielded an $89M net profit after all home entertainment windows off a $75M production cost, $45M foreign sales and $48M U.S. marketing spend.
Internationally, John Wick: Chapter 4 debuts in 71 territories worldwide including UK, Germany, Australia, France, Italy, Spain, and Mexico.
By comparison, 65 territories opened Parabellum day-and-date with the U.S. and that suite had Russia which is not included this time around. Russia was one of the top openings for the threequel offshore at $3.8M (unadjusted for inflation) and topped off at $7.6M. Parabellum didn’t have Germany, France and Spain in its opening weekend, though those major territories are included in Chapter 4‘s first frame here. Chapter 3‘s international opening weekend was $36.9M and $93.75M WW, a previous global record start.
The second U.S./Canada weekend for New Line’s Shazam: Fury of the Gods is looking at around -60% for a $12M take per industry estimates. Monday was $1.7M, -77% from Sunday’s $7.4M.
MGM/United Artists releasing is also opening the Zach Braff R-rated title A Good Person starring Florence Pugh and Morgan Freeman at 530 theaters. Written by Braff, A Good Person follows Allison, whose life falls apart following her involvement in a fatal accident.